Piscatorial example: suppose λ=4 fish are caught on average in one hour.
(There's nothing fishy about Poisson!)
What is the probability of catching k=0 fish, k=1 fish, k=2 fishes, k=3 fishes, etc. in one hour?
Ex.: suppose λ=3 things exist in one cubic meter of some stuff.
What is the probability of observing k=0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, etc. things in that cubic meter of stuff?
Ex.: Prussian Army soldiers killed by (accidental) horsekick (mules too?) was 0.61 per year (per cavalry corps).
What is the probability that no soldiers were horsekicked to death in a year, 1 soldier killed, 2, 3, 4 etc.?
Ex.: Tik Tok clicks occur 5.5 times per microsecond.
What's the chance that more than 7 occur in the next microsecond? ...
k
P(k)
∑P(k)=CDF=P(≤k)
P(≥k)
The table continues up to 2*λ or as long as the probabilty is greater than .001.
Show a particular k:
PMF(k) = P(k)=
CDF(k) is ∑P(k)=
P(≥k)=1-CDF(k-1)=
Probability histogram:
When λ is an integer, P(λ) = P(λ-1)
In 1/m of the interval, the expected/mean number of random independent events that occur in it
is λ/m.
In m intervals, the expected/mean number of random independent events that occur in it
is mλ.
P(0) = e-λ
P(1) = λe-λ
Binomial probability distribution can be approximated by the Poisson probability distribution with λ=np.
As λ gets larger, the pmf functions becomes Normalish:
Excel: Poisson.Dist(k, λ, TRUE/FALSE) FALSE for PMF, TRUE for CDF.